Economic Activity During the Government Shutdown

CEA has this interesting report.

The Nobels for Asset Pricing

From WSJ.

The Best Advice Fama Got

Here.

With formal statistics, you say something -- a hypothesis -- and then you test it. Harry always said that your criterion should be not whether or not you can reject or accept the hypothesis, but what you can learn from the data. The best thing you can do is use the data to enhance your description of the world. That has been the guiding light of my research. You should use market data to understand markets better, not to say this or that hypothesis is literally true or false. No model is ever strictly true. The real criterion should be: Do I know more about markets when I'm finished than I did when I started? Harry's lesson is one that I've passed on to my students over the 49 years that I've been a teacher.

Calculated Risk's Links

Calculated Risk collects this wonderful links for economic data source.

Funny News and Stupid Robotraders

Hathaway conquers sage and screen.

State Pension Value

State pension systems had an estimated funding ratio of 69% for fiscal year 2010, ending June 30, up from 65% for fiscal year 2009.

States Fumble Revenue Forecasts .

From WSJ.

Risk vs Uncertainty

• About Knightian uncertainty.
• Rogoff on uncertainty and regulation from the lesson of BP oil's spill.

Fair's Model on Yuan

The Yin and Yang of Yuan appreication by Ray Fair from WSJ.
Hmm, I disagree with Prof. Fair. I think there is something wrong with his model.

Do Our Financial Models Still Work?

Panel includes Myron Scholes talk about models in Milken Institute Conference.

Lost Decade for Stocks

From James Hamliton.

China Steps Into Futures Markets

From WSJ.

Russell's Business Cycle Index: No Double-Dip Recession

Here from econbrowser, based on Qual VAR model from Mike Dueker.

Rusell's Helping Advisor provides a good economic recovery dashboard.

John Taylor Explains Taylor Rule

Taylor Rule Change Will Hurt Fed’s Inflation Fight by John Taylor.

A Letter to The Queen

Queen asked a question when she visited London School of Economics: why had nobody noticed that the credit crunch was on its way? The British Academy wrote a letter to answer the question later on. On paragraph caught my eyes:

All this exposed the difficulties of slowing the progression of such developments in the presence of a general ‘feel-good’ factor. Households benefited from low unemployment, cheap consumer goods and ready credit. Businesses benefited from lower borrowing costs. Bankers ere earning bumper bonuses and expanding their business around the world. The government benefited from high tax revenues enabling them to increase public spending on schools and hospitals. This was bound to create a psychology of denial. It was a cycle fuelled, in significant measure, not by virtue but by delusion.

Robert Shiller and Its Hedging Products

An interesting article about Bob Shiller and his financial invention (UMM and DMM) for hedge on housing market.

What's New in Econometrics – Time Series 2008

NBER Summer Institute 2008: Whats New in Econometrics – Time Series
NBER Summer Institute 2007: Whats New in Econometrics?

I should watch these lectures during the summer. I love Internet.

Bernamke's Commencement Address

Bernake's speech at the 2009 Commencement of the Boston College School of Law, quite a soft and personal speech.
He mentioned a good quote from John Lennon: "Life is what happens to you while you are busy making other plans."

What Does Your Credit-Card Company Know About You?

A very interesting article about credit card business and its use of human psychology. It also provides some interesting example of correlation, for example:
Less-likely default cardholder: buy felt-pad, visit dentist, getting married, having a child.
More-likely default cardholder: buy chrome-skull, go to bar, pawnshop, marriage therapy.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

The ADS real time business condition index provides daily report of economic status.
It is maintained and updated by Fed Philadelphia frequently.